September 2026
After a quiet summer period, activity in the bulk shipping market typically starts to change around fall.
Holiday periods end. Harvest-related cargoes begin to move. Heating season demand starts to return. Existing contracts begin drawing on vessel capacity. And vessels that spent the quieter months working elsewhere may not be in the right position when new cargo enters the market.
None of these factors on its own means that freight rates automatically rise after summer. But together, they can change the balance between cargo and available vessels faster than the overall market picture suggests.
“If a market has been weak for a period, some owners may position their vessels elsewhere. If more cargo then comes in while fewer vessels are available, it does not take much for the market to start moving,” says Per E. Andersen, Partner at Holst Shipping.
Vessel availability is about more than the number of ships
For a cargo buyer, the global number of vessels is rarely the most useful measure of availability.
The important question is how many vessels are realistically available for your cargo, your route and your timing.
A vessel may exist in the fleet but already be committed elsewhere. It may be too far away to make the required laycan. Its size may not fit the parcel or port. Or another cargo may simply make more commercial sense for the owner.
The basic market mechanism is simple.
When several suitable vessels are competing for relatively few cargoes, buyers normally have more room to compare options. When more cargoes start competing for fewer suitable vessels, that balance changes.
This is why a market can still look relatively soft at a broad level while availability for a specific shipment begins to tighten.
What can change the balance after summer?
There is rarely one single trigger but here we list a few of the important ones:
- Seasonal cargo activity is part of the picture. Harvests begin to translate into physical shipments. Demand linked to the colder months returns. Commercial activity generally increases after the holiday period. However, some of the pressure on vessel availability is less visible.
- Cargoes moving under existing contracts, for example, may never appear as new enquiries in the spot market. The vessels carrying them still disappear from the pool available to spot buyers.
“Cargoes under existing contracts are not necessarily visible in the spot market. But the vessels are still committed, and that can leave fewer vessels available for spot cargo,” says Kristian D. Kristensen, Managing Director and Partner at Holst Shipping.
- Vessel positioning matters too. If owners have spent a weak period moving tonnage towards stronger trades, a later increase in cargo demand can meet a thinner local supply of ships. Strong demand in another region can also draw suitable tonnage away from Northern Europe.
- And then there is weather. A few days of delay may not sound significant when looking at one vessel. Across a larger number of vessels, however, those days add up.
“Once those shipping days are lost, you cannot get them back. A vessel cannot suddenly sail twice as fast. That is capacity out of the market,” says Kristian D. Kristensen.
The result is not necessarily a general vessel shortage. It is a smaller number of realistic options for a particular cargo at a particular time.
A higher freight rate does not always mean the vessel market is tighter
There is another reason why the market can be difficult to read: the freight indication itself contains more than the price of vessel capacity.
Fuel is an important part of the voyage economics.
If bunker costs increase, an owner may need a higher freight rate simply to cover the additional voyage cost. That does not necessarily mean competition for the vessel itself has increased by the same amount. The reverse can happen too.
“If more cargo comes into the market but at the same time the oil price falls, it may look as if freight prices are not really increasing, even though there is plenty of cargo in the market,” says Per E. Andersen.
For cargo buyers, this distinction matters.
A relatively stable freight indication does not automatically mean vessel availability is unchanged. And a higher freight indication does not automatically mean that the underlying vessel market has tightened.
The useful question is therefore not only what has happened to the rate?
It is also what is driving it?
What changes when you wait?
Waiting can make sense in a soft market. If several vessels are available, more time may create another option or a more attractive freight indication.
But when vessel availability starts to tighten, waiting becomes a different commercial decision.
It means remaining exposed while the number of realistic options may be getting smaller.
That can affect more than price. A later option may involve a different laycan, another vessel size or less flexibility around the preferred shipment plan.
This does not mean that cargo buyers should automatically fix at the first indication of a firmer market.
Bulk shipping markets are fragmented. Different vessel sizes, cargoes, routes and regions can move differently, and broad percentage forecasts can quickly become misleading.
The important point is to understand what waiting means for the actual shipment.
Preparation gives you more to work with
Cargo buyers cannot control when a freight market changes. But they can prepare for the decisions that may follow. That starts with understanding when the cargo will actually be ready and where there may be practical flexibility.
Can the laycan move? Is there flexibility on quantity? Can another suitable vessel size work? How fixed are the loading and discharge dates? And is the organisation ready to make a decision when a realistic option appears?
“You cannot just press a button and have the cargo ready on the quay. A lot of things have to line up,” says Per E. Andersen.
Flexibility does not guarantee lower freight. Production schedules, storage, port restrictions and the cargo itself can all set firm limits.
But where flexibility exists, it can give the broker more realistic options to compare. And preparation also has an internal side.
“Part of being prepared is being ready to make a decision when a realistic option appears,” says Kristian D. Kristensen.
That may be the most useful way to approach a market that is starting to move. Not by trying to predict the exact day when it turns.
But by understanding what is happening around your cargo, knowing where you have flexibility and being ready when the available options begin to change.
Holst follows those factors to help customers compare realistic options and understand the trade-offs before fixing.
