September 2026
Across western Europe, the summer of 2026 has been exceptionally hot and dry.
June was the hottest June on record for western Europe, while river flows were below average in large areas. For bulk shipping, those climate statistics become relevant when less water means less transport capacity.
The rivers and canals that connect industrial areas in central Europe with major seaports are still moving cargo. But in some places, vessels can carry significantly less. Elsewhere, lock restrictions are narrowing the windows in which ships can move.
And when capacity disappears from one part of the cargo flow, the effects can spread.
“The rivers are a lifeline in the central European transport setup. Inland waterways are an important part of the chain. When low water reduces that capacity, it creates challenges throughout the system.”, says Kristian D. Kristensen, Managing Director and Partner, Holst Shipping.
Summer 2026 – low water in numbers
- Western Europe: June 2026 was the hottest June on record for the region.
- Rhine: The Kaub gauge fell below the previous 2018 record in August. The gauge is a reference level, not the actual river depth.
- Reduced Rhine capacity: On some affected sections, inland vessels have been operating with substantially reduced cargo loads.
- Ghent–Terneuzen: Vessels have been subject to reduced maximum draft.
- Terneuzen: Lock restrictions have reduced flexibility around vessel movements.
Low water and bulk shipping: less cargo changes the economics
The most immediate consequence of low water is simple: a vessel that cannot use its normal draft cannot carry its normal cargo.
That changes the economics.
If a barge can only carry part of its normal load, the cost of making the voyage does not fall in the same proportion. The cost per transported tonne therefore rises.
At the same time, moving the same overall cargo volume requires more voyages or more vessels.
“If a barge can only carry part of its normal cargo, the cost of the voyage does not disappear. The cost per tonne goes up, and you suddenly need more barges to move the same amount.”, says Kristian D. Kristensen.
That creates a second effect: pressure on available capacity. If the same cargo volume suddenly requires two or three vessels instead of one, demand for available units increases at exactly the time when the system is already constrained.
Alternative modes such as rail and road can absorb some cargo, but they have their own capacity limits.
The key point is that low water does not only affect whether cargo can move. It affects how much can move, how many transport units are needed and what it costs to move each tonne.
Ghent–Terneuzen: when the bottleneck is the lock
At Ghent–Terneuzen, the practical problem is different. The canal requires freshwater to maintain water levels and limit salinisation from the Western Scheldt. During the dry summer, lower freshwater availability has led to restrictions on draft and lock operations.
The draft restriction matters, particularly for larger vessels. But from Holst’s perspective, the more immediate execution issue has been reduced flexibility around the locks.
“Ghent is a special case because you also have the lock effect. You can end up waiting to get in – and waiting again to get out. That is where it becomes a real bottleneck.”, says Kristian D. Kristensen.
A vessel may already be fixed. The cargo may be ready. A berth may be part of the plan. But if vessels are concentrated into smaller operating windows, the original timing can become harder to maintain. A vessel delayed getting out can affect the vessel waiting to get in. A berth expected to be free may remain occupied.
That is when a water-management problem starts becoming a bulk shipping execution problem.
Someone has to absorb the waiting time
Waiting days do not disappear from the economics of a shipment. Who ultimately carries a specific cost depends on the charter party, the circumstances and the responsibilities agreed between the parties. Low water does not automatically make a charterer liable for demurrage, nor does a lock restriction produce one standard contractual outcome.
But the underlying commercial point is straightforward: the vessel is still using time.
“Someone has to pay for those waiting days. If the owner carries that cost, it affects the economics of calling the port. If it falls to the charterer under the agreed terms, you may be looking at additional costs such as demurrage.”, says Kristian D. Kristensen.
This is why actual port conditions matter. If questions arise about whether a berth was genuinely available, whether the vessel could have entered or when the agreed time should begin to count, the details of what actually happened become important.
Holst’s role is not to make a legitimate cost disappear. It is to stay close to the execution, understand the agreed terms and help the customer assess claims against the actual course of events.
“If demurrage is due under the agreed terms, we cannot make it disappear. But we can help make sure the claim is assessed against what was agreed and what actually happened.”, says Kristian D. Kristensen.
A double exposure for the transport buyer
Put the different effects together, and the cargo owner can face pressure from two directions. First, lower inland capacity can increase the underlying transport cost. Less cargo per vessel means more voyages or more units are needed to move the same volume.
Second, tighter access and greater uncertainty during execution can increase exposure to waiting time and related additional costs.
That does not mean the wider European bulk shipping market has already structurally priced a future of recurring dry summers into every freight rate.
But repeated disruption is unlikely to remain economically neutral.
If a trade consistently requires more time, carries greater execution uncertainty or gives owners fewer opportunities to use their vessels efficiently, that changes the commercial context in which future freight is negotiated. For transport buyers, the question therefore goes beyond what one difficult summer costs.
It becomes a question of exposure.
What if this becomes a recurring summer pattern?
One summer alone cannot define a new normal. But if hot, dry summers and low-water periods become more frequent, cargo owners may need to think more systematically about their exposure during the summer months.
“If this becomes the kind of summer we see more often, cargo owners need to think about their strategy for that period. I am not saying you should move away from Ghent or from inland waterways. But you need to understand the challenges you may be exposed to during the summer.”, says Kristian D. Kristensen.
Alternative routes can be part of that discussion, but they are not an automatic solution. Road capacity may be limited. Rail may be constrained. Another port can add distance, handling or cost. Storage can buy time, but it does not create transport capacity. And for some cargo flows, there may simply be no attractive short-term alternative.
That makes the strategic question less about finding a universal Plan B and more about knowing the vulnerabilities in the existing Plan A.
