August 2026
Oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty have made the bulk market harder to read in recent months.
For cargo owners, the question is not only whether the market is going up or down. The more practical question is this: Do you need to move your cargo now - or do you have time to wait?
That distinction matters, says Per E. Andersen, Partner at Holst Shipping.
“When oil prices move as much as they have, some customers become hesitant. It is not only a question of cost - uncertainty can also slow down decisions.”, says Per E. Andersen, Partner, Holst Shipping.
According to Per, the main market drivers over the past months have been oil and geopolitics - especially the uncertainty around the Middle East and the effect this has had on fuel prices.
When oil prices move sharply, it becomes harder to price risk. Owners, operators and cargo buyers all need to decide whether to act, wait or protect themselves against further movement. That can slow down the market.
A shipment may still be possible. The cargo may be ready. The vessel may be available. But if the cost picture is changing quickly, some parties will hesitate before committing.
Why oil matters so much
Fuel is not the whole freight market. Cargo demand, vessel availability, route, timing and the agreed terms all matter. But fuel is one of the major cost elements behind a voyage. When bunker prices move sharply, the freight conversation changes.
A simple example shows why. A movement of 100 USD per metric tonne in bunker prices can translate into several thousand dollars per sailing day, depending on vessel type and consumption. For a Supramax vessel, the illustrative impact can be around 2,900 USD per day.
That does not mean every freight rate moves one-to-one with oil. But it explains why fuel volatility quickly becomes relevant for cargo owners.
Per’s point is simple: when oil is unstable, customers need to understand how exposed they are.
“If you do not have anything on contract, you are much more exposed to the market. Then the question becomes whether your cargo can wait - or whether it has to move now.”, he says.
Market context: July 2026
At the time of writing, Holst is watching a market where:
- Brent crude moved sharply during spring before falling back to around 76.6 USD/bbl in July.
- Bunker prices remain important for voyage economics.
- The Baltic Dry Index stood around 2,910 in early July and was almost 100% higher year-on-year.
- Oil and distillate inventories before winter remain relevant indicators.
- The real impact still depends on cargo, timing, route, vessel type and agreed terms.
These numbers are not a forecast. They are signals that help explain why the current market requires careful reading.
Contract, fuel clauses or fixed price?
When fuel prices are moving, customers often ask what they can actually do.
There is rarely one simple answer. In some cases, a customer may have a contract where fuel movements are handled through an agreed clause. In other cases, it may be possible to seek a fixed price for a shipment. For larger players and larger vessels, there may be more tools available to manage fuel exposure.
But not every option is available to every customer. And reducing uncertainty often comes at a cost.
Per explains that this is why Holst tries to present realistic options rather than one fixed answer.
“We try to come back with different options for our customers, if it is possible. It may be a fixed price, or another way of knowing what fuel level you are up against - but it depends on the situation”, he says.
The key word is possible. Some customers have room to wait. Some have contracts. Some can adjust timing. Others simply need the cargo moved. That difference determines the real exposure.
Who is most exposed?
According to Per, the most exposed customers are often those with large volumes that must move within a short period.
If the cargo is needed now, there is less room to wait for the market to settle. If the cargo can be delayed, split or handled differently, the customer has more options.
“The customers most exposed are often those who need to move a lot of cargo within a short period. If the cargo has to move, there is less room to wait for the market to settle,” he says.
This is why the practical freight discussion should start with a few simple questions:
- What needs to move?
- When does it need to move?
- Can the shipment wait?
- Is there a contract or fuel clause in place?
- How much of the volume is exposed to the market right now?
The answers do not remove the uncertainty. But they make it easier to decide what to do next. In the current market, waiting only helps if you actually have time to wait.
A new market reality can emerge
Markets do not stay confused forever. Per points out that after the first period of uncertainty, the market often begins to find a new working level. Owners, operators and cargo buyers adjust. They understand the new conditions, the available tools and the realistic options.
“Usually, the first weeks are the most uncertain. After some time, the market starts to find a new everyday reality: these are the conditions, these are the tools, and these are the options we can work with,” says Per E. Andersen.
That does not mean the risk disappears. It means the market becomes easier to work in because people know what they are dealing with.
For Holst, this is one of the key things to watch after the summer: which trades return to normal volumes, which do not, and whether the market gets more stable conditions to work with.
What Holst is watching now
Holst’s current view is that the market should be approached with calm attention.
The main things to watch are:
- whether geopolitical tensions ease or escalate again
- how oil and bunker prices develop
- whether inventories are rebuilt before winter
- which dry bulk trades return to normal volumes after summer
- whether cargo owners have flexibility - or need to act now
Per sees two broad scenarios.
In the more negative scenario, renewed tension around oil-producing regions could create pressure again - especially if inventories are not rebuilt before winter.
In the more positive scenario, the uncertainty settles, agreements are made, and the market gets something more stable to work with.
For cargo owners, this does not mean trying to predict the market perfectly. It means understanding what a change would mean for their own cargo.
Holst’s current advice
Per’s current advice is deliberately calm.
If the cargo does not need to move immediately, it may make sense to wait briefly and see where the market settles. But if the cargo must move within a firm window, the exposure should be assessed early.
“There is no reason to make a rushed decision if the cargo does not need to move immediately. But if the cargo has to move, you need to understand your exposure early”, he says.
That is the core of Holst’s current market view. The market may be volatile. But the practical decision still starts with the cargo: what needs to move, when, under which terms, and how much flexibility you have.
